Scenario-based earthquake risk assessment for central-southern Malawi: The case of the Bilila-Mtakataka Fault

A regional seismic risk analysis for central-southern Malawi is conducted by focusing on the Bilila-Mtakataka Fault within East African Rift System and incorporating local information population exposure building vulnerability. The scenario-based earthquake assessments account uncertainty in geometry, position, rupture pattern of as well ground-motion variability are based latest 2018 national census data. In addition, Malawi-specific fragility functions, which were developed surveys laboratory tests construction materials, implemented to reflect realistic vulnerability unreinforced masonry constructions Malawi. results from sensitivity analyses alternative data models highlight importance hazard characterisation, data, buildings, comparison with global models. For considered case study region, individual effects above-mentioned model components tend result 20–30 % or greater differences metrics, such affected experiencing a certain ground shaking intensity level number collapsed housing units. improved hazard-risk more effective informing future mitigation policies actions.